英语翻译Between bears and hawksThe Fed has more to fear frominfl

英语翻译
Between bears and hawks
The Fed has more to fear from
inflation than from slower growth
IT
WOULD win no prizes for elegant prose,but the statement that accompanied the
Federal Reserve's latest quarter-point increase in interest rates on May 10th
was at least clear.The central bankers are not sure what to do next.“Further
policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks,” they said,but
they added that “the extent and timing of any such firming will depend
importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming
information.”
The
Fed's desire not to tie itself down is understandable.After 16 consecutive
rate increases,American monetary policy is no longer loose and there are signs
that areas of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates,notably the
housing market,are feeling the effects of dearer money.Virtually all
economists predict slower economic growth in the months ahead,a view given credence
by April's surprisingly modest pace of job creation.Because higher interest
rates take a while to show their full effect,prudence suggests a pause.
Otherwise the central bankers risk slowing demand too sharply.
That
said,the economy has hitherto been roaring along at a wholly unsustainable
pace:output grew at an annualised rate of 4.8% in the first quarter of the
year.Both labour and product markets are tight,global growth is looking ever
stronger,commodity prices are soaring,the dollar is falling,and American
inflation is already pressing against the limits of the tolerable.
The Fed's
favourite measure of inflation,the annual increase in the “core” personal
consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (ie,excluding fuel and food),rose in
March to 2%—the most that Ben Bernanke,the Fed's newish chairman,feels
comfortable with.On balance,the chances are that,over the next few months at
least,the Fed will worry more about inflation than about slower
growth.
Short-term
technicalities provide one reason for this.Arithmetical nuances alone suggest
that the 12-month core PCE deflator will hover around,or even exceed,2% for a
while.More important,the housing component of core inflation,which is based
on rental prices,is rising.
A core
inflation rate temporarily above 2% need not automatically raise red flags.It
has exceeded that threshold several times in recent years.And,as economists
at Goldman Sachs have pointed out,the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest
rates in early 1995 and mid-2000 despite a modest rise in core inflation.Then,
however,the general trend of inflation was downwards; now it is rising.
不要有道和百度谷歌翻译的，要语句通顺的人工翻译的

鱼和熊掌,不可兼得
　　相对于经济增长缓慢的状况,美联储更担心的是出现通货膨胀
　　他们（美联储）发表的这份声明也许并不能算得上是什么优雅美文.但它至少清晰的指出,最新数据显示,5月10日美联储利率上升了25个基点.中央银行不确定他们下一步的举措.“未来可能需要施行进一步的紧缩政策,以解决通货膨胀带来的风险,”他们说,但他们补充称,“我们施行此政策决心已定,然而,重要的是,我们将会参考各方提供的信息,宏观考虑经济的发展前景,据此判断其施行的力度和时机.”
　　我们能够理解,美联储（这么做是）不希望作茧自缚.经过连续16次加息之后,美国货币政策不再是一盘散沙,有迹象表明,众多领域易受利率变化的影响,特别是房地产市场,房价因为利率的上调而直线上升.几乎所有的经济学家都预测,未来几个月的经济增长将放缓,这一观点很快被证实了,到了4月,工作岗位严重不足、人才市场需求减少.因为高利率带来的影响,需要经过一段时间,才能充分显示其效果,在此谨慎建议停止利率的上调.否则,中央银行将因需求严重不足而承当风险.
　　这就是说,迄今为止,经济一直在沿着一条不可持续的道路呼啸前进：今年第一季度,年产出率增长了4.8%,.劳动力市场和产品市场都资源紧缺,全球经济处于前所未有的飞速发展状态,大宗商品价格飙升、美元下跌、美国的通货膨胀导致整个经济体系濒临崩溃.
　　美联储最喜欢通胀政策是,每年提高年人均消费支出（PCE)的平减指数(即不包括燃料和食品),直到3月份上升到历史最高点——平减指数为2%后,美联储的新任主席——本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)才心满意足地停手.总的来说,至少在接下来的几个月里,相比于经济增长缓慢的状况,美联储更有可能担心通货膨胀引发的恶劣后果.
　　短期的技术指标提供了其中一个原因.该技术研究表明,12个的月核心个人消费支出平减指数为2%,这一结果在算术上仅有细微误差,其准确结果将在2%上下徘徊、甚至超过2%.更重要的是,对于处于通货膨胀下的房地产行业,其房价以租赁价格为基础,仍在不断上升.
　　虽然目前的核心通胀率已超2%,但暂时还不需亮起红灯.近年来,它已经数次越过这个门槛.,高盛的经济学家指出,早在1995年和2000年代中期,尽管核心通胀率存在小幅上升,美联储仍曾停止加息,.然而,一般情况下,通货膨胀的发展趋势是逐渐减弱,然而现在却仍愈演愈烈.