英语翻译Automotive Industry:Japan Strategic Market ProfileJapan

英语翻译
Automotive Industry:Japan Strategic Market Profile
Japan has an abundance of statistical data going back to 1960 and earlier,which makes the market amenable to analysis,either directly through data availability,or indirectly through analysis.In this case,which looks at the relationship between sales and scrap volumes,over time,the data is inferred through a simple arithmetic triangulation between sales volume and parc size.The scrap level therefore represents the number of vehicles leaving the parc; either through scrappage or export as used vehicles.Either way,the data provides hard information on the level of replacement vehicles sold as a proportion of total vehicle sales.It is best to ignore the first three years in the graph,as these years represent the beginning of a major cycle,which includes massive leaps in the volumes of vehicles sold and the number of vehicles in the parc.What is clear,however,is that by 1970,the scrap to sales ratio had already reached more than 42% for the market as a whole,with commercial vehicles reaching a replacement rate of 72.5% and passenger cars,20.4%.A more cohesive picture was established by 1980,with a similar rate of circa 65% apparent for the entire market.
Therefore,in 1980,for every 100 vehicles sold,65 vehicles were either scrapped or otherwise removed from circulation.By the year 2000,the average ratio had reached 85%,with divergence again between passenger cars and commercial vehicles.The forecast is that one vehicle will be scrapped for every vehicle sold,by 2020.The different rates for cars and commercials are due more to vehicle categorizations,than different turnover cycles.
A crucial element in enabling the best possible forecasting of auto activity in a market is to know and understand the age of the vehicle parc and to predict how long it takes to renew the vehicle parc through both sales of new vehicles and the scrapping of old vehicles.This is not easy to do,as it requires detailed information about the market covering a long time period.It also requires an accurate picture as possible as to how the vehicle parc has grown,and if necessary using regression and smoothing techniques to provide a realistic long-term growth pattern for the number of vehicles on the road.When this is completed,it is also necessary to undertake a moving average calculation on vehicle scrap page to “iron out” any gross peaks or troughs in the data to overcome any apparently abrupt transitions which may occur.The situation in Japan,due to its unique development cycle,is almost a textbook example of how a market should proceed,at least in theory.Historical data in Japan is readily available and allows the process of parc turnover to be depicted unusually well.

汽车制造业:日本战略市场外形 日本有统计数据丰盈审阅回到1960 年和更加早期,使市场顺应对分析,或直接地通过数据可用性,或间接地分析.在这种情况下,看关系在销售之间和小块容量,在时间期间,数据被推断通过简单的算术三角测量在销售量和parc 大小之间.小块水平代表因此车的数量离开parc; 或通过废物或出口作为被使用的车.不管怎样,数据提供坚硬信息在替换车上的水平销售作为全面车销售的比例.这是最佳忽略第一三年在图表,因为这些岁月代表一个主要周期的起点,包括巨型的飞跃在车的容量被卖和车的数量在parc .什么是确切,然而,是那在1970 年以前,小块对销售比率已经到达超过42% 为市场整体上,用商用车到达替换率的72.5% 和客车,20.4% .一张更加言词一致的图片在1980 年以前建立了,以相似的率的大约65% 明显为整个市场.所以,1980 年,为每100 辆车被卖,65 辆车或从循环被废弃了或否则被去除了.至2000年,平均比率再到达了85%,以分歧在客车和商用车之间.展望是,一辆车将被废弃为每辆车被卖,在2020 年以前.不同的率为汽车和商务是适当更对车范畴,比不同的转交周期.一个关键的元素在使能自动活动最佳的可能的预测在市场上将知道和了解车parc 的年龄和预言多么长期需要更新车parc 通过新车两销售和废弃老车.这不容易做,因为它要求关于市场的详细的信息包括长的时期.它尽可能并且要求一张准确图片至于怎样车parc 增长,并且如果需要使用退化和使光滑技术为车的数量提供一个现实长期经济增长模型在路.当这被完成,它是还必要承担对车小块页的移动平均数演算"解决" 所有总峰顶或低谷在数据克服也许发生的任何明显突然的转折.情况在日本,由于它独特的发育周期,几乎是课本例子怎样市场应该进行,至少在理论上.历史数据在日本是欣然可利用的和允许parc 转交的过程被描述异常地很好.